Surprise amber warning from UKMO

Courtesy UKMO

The Amber warning for heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday came as a bit of surprise (at least to me) this morning. There seems to be no stopping the Met Office from knocking out amber warnings these days, and they are not taking any chances of getting caught out with the complex area of low pressure later this week. They reckon the area of concern is what I always think of as “central northern England” and targets the river Don catchment area as well as the rivers Aire and Calder further north (the good old SUNWAC mnemonic) as the Pennines are forecast to receive 100-120 mm of rain, plus a bit of snow melt in the 42 hour period. I realised it was going to be a wet week across the northwest of England and west Wales but didn’t see that being a flooding threat to the south Pennines in the four NWP models I looked at this morning.

Originally tweeted by Met Office (@metoffice) on January 17, 2021.

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