The chances of no Arctic sea ice in summer before 2050

My own simplistic approach to the problem of calculating when the Arctic will be totally free of sea ice in summer without the use of a supercomputer and sophisticated climate models, is to extrapolate a linear trend of the last forty years worth of satellite data forward, and by so doing I reckon it might be twenty years later than the study suggests and it won’t be till 2070 that the Arctic is sea ice free in summer.

I’m sure that it won’t be long before we can take a cruise across the North Pole on the longest day and wave jauntily at the crew of a passing Japanese fishing boat or whaler whilst sipping our Daiquiri, who knows the Russians might have already moored an oil or gas rig at 90° north just to enforce their sovereignty by then too.

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