The odd warning of heavy rain for central and southeast England *updated*

Courtesy of the UKMO

The Met Office have issued a rather odd yellow warning of heavy rain for the southeast and central southern England at 1100 BST valid for the period 1130 till 1900 BST today. I say odd because they seem to have completely forgotten about the heavy rain now falling across the southwest of England and Wales, where totals since 06 UTC are already in the range 30 to 40 mm already. I have double refreshed my browser, but I still only see this single warning of heavy rain for today. It may well be that the southeast will see 20 to 30 mm this afternoon but what about the 20 to 30 mm that’s already fallen in parts of the southwest? They obviously think that in their impacts based warnings system they use that the southwest can easily cope with these kind of totals in just five hours.

Estimated Rainfall Accumulations

All sorts of funny things going on in the development in the Celtic Sea with sharp pressure falls. I don’t think much of the position of my cold front but at least it fits the latest satellite image.


Finally an hour after my initial blog the Met Office sprang into action and adjusted the size of their yellow warning for heavy rainfall to include not only the whole of southern England but Northern Ireland too. I am not at all sure how all this all happened. I don’t know if it was just because of poor guidance from their mesoscale model or if they just took the eye of the ball. If I could spot this from my back bedroom office in the north of Scotland (whilst at the same time making a set of pine shelves in the garage) I don’t see why meteorologists getting paid to keep an eye on it Exeter couldn’t see this scenario unfolding before them during the late morning.

Courtesy of the UKMO

The 15 UTC chart is just as interesting as the 11 UTC was. More confident about the cold front now, but the warm front is anyone’s guess.

The area of rainfall totals of 30 to 40 mm area has spread across much of south Devon and into parts of Dorset and Gloucestershire, the area across Pembrokeshire has expanded a little with totals of 40 to 50 mm now evident.

Estimated totals from weather radar
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