The recent record mild winter in Europe

How much of the underlying cause of the recent record mild winter across Europe and western Russia was purely down to the dynamics of atmospheric circulation and how much of it due to climate change brought about by AGW? There’s absolutely no doubt that the earth has warmed by over a degree in the last 100 years and in the last 30 years it’s warming much faster than that, but I don’t accept it’s responsible for the anomalies of +8°C we saw in January 2020 across southern Finland. Take a look at the above charts for mean temperature and pressure from 1963 and 2020 as an extreme example of what anomalous circulation patterns can do to any January. Separating the natural background warming due to fluctuations in the circulation pattern from those brought about by AGW I would have thought is nigh on impossible to do.

Scroll to Top