The track of Lorenzo – it’s complicated

Interesting variation in how the various NWP models of the world handle the track of Hurricane Lorenzo. Yesterday when I asked Whither Lorenzo it was going east across the British Isles according to the GFS model, now in the latest 06 UTC run of the model, it seems that the ridge will stand its ground across the country and Lorenzo will head north towards Iceland.

On the other hand the ECMWF have a completely different solution to where Lorenzo will end up, taking i further south in the southwest approaches.

Courtesy of ECMWF

At the moment Lorenzo is a category 5 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 925 hPa and heading north into cooler waters at 9 MPH, it’s a large and powerful hurricane, and the NHC have kind of split the difference about where they see Lorenzo tracking and take the it northeast across Ireland.

Courtesy of NHC

You really couldn’t make this up could you? Fantastically powerful and expensive computers, sophisticated NWP models and three entirely different solutions for just four days into the future.

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