It is not very often that we get three thundery days in a row across IONA, so this one is a little exceptional in that regard, and who knows it might extend to four or five days before it’s done. It’s certainly put the UKMO NWP model under a certain amount of pressure in how it has performed in the last couple of days, so the Press team at the UKMO have rolled out the boiling pan of water analogy to let us just how difficult thunderstorms are to forecast. I wonder if this ever comes into the negotiations when then are putting their case for a new £1.2 billion supercomputer? I can just picture the scene when in one breath they are saying that the new supercomputer will help to more accurately predict storms – and in the next saying that we are not actually too clever at predicting them at the moment, and it’s rather like saying where bubbles will pop up in a pan of boiling water – whatever happened to nowcasting and NWP models being run every hour?
I notice that the Met Office have already plumped for their favourite areas they think will see some disruption today, wisely they have also included the northwest Midlands in addition to an area covering the west of Northern Ireland. I wonder how the model will fare today?