Warmth continues until the 14th and then…

ECMWF 2M temperature anomalies

The warm start to June hangs on through the first two weeks of the month and the 10th and 11th look very warm even hot in the NE of Scotland and the SE of England, that’s according to the ECMWF 2M temperature anomalies forecast. But then on the 16th in the extended GFS model, there’s a sudden switch to cold northwesterlies regime behind a deep low that tracks across southern Scotland towards Norway. The resulting sharp cold trough that follows, floods most of western Europe with colder than average air and anomalies of -8°C or lower across Germany and the Alps. This scenario does look straight out of a script for a Twilight Zone episode and you have the right to be a little skeptical because so am I.

GFS 2M temperature Anomalies

Thursday 17 Jun – Thursday 1 Jul
Confidence is typically low for this outlook, but high pressure looks to be most likely with generally fine and dry conditions for most. However, the risk of some showers developing through the days is still possible with perhaps cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average.

UKMO long range forecast

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