I received an email this morning regarding the intensity of storm Ellen yesterday evening from Stephen Burt (which I thought was was very kind of him). In the 23 UTC observation at Shannon airport the MSLP was reported as 967.3 hPa and just just pipped the existing record of 967.7 hPa set on the 14 August 1967 at Belmullet. Who knows if the Shannon METAR at 2320 UTC might have gone slightly lower?
|19-20 August 2020|
New August low pressure record – 967.3 hPa at Shannon, 2300z 19 August 2020. The minimum was probably lower as the pressure was still falling at this observation. Previous August lowest 967.7 hPa at Belmullet on 14 August 1959 (Burt 2007, p41) Burt, S., 2007: The Highest of the Highs … Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 2 – the most intense anticyclones. Weather, 62, 31-41. [This paper lists the monthly extremes as well as the most intense anticyclones] Rapidly deepening low ran up the west coast of Ireland; Shannon 03962 at 2300z reported 967.3 hPa, the lowest on record for any site in the British and Irish Isles in the month of August. Note 3 hr ppp Shannon -140, still falling
2200 Valentia 977.7 hPa;
2300 Shannon 967.3 hPa still falling; AAXX 19231 03962 41463 71304 10170 20151 39651 49673 57140 72052 876// 333 82710 87713==
0000 Mace Head 03963 972.6 hPa;
0100 Claremorris 03970 968.1 hPa still falling;
0200 Finner 03978 971.4 hPa 202008192300
To me storm Ellen seem to be behaving very much like a tropical cyclone or tropical depression, forget all the bollocks about SST of 27°C. If the UKMO just took a little bit more care in their analysis, you could argue that Shannon was still in warm tropical air within the warm sector when the low decided to explosively deepen during the late evening
The various models had the right idea, but ultimately the weren’t intense enough and a bit too far east.