What kind of Autumn are we in for?

Images courtesy of the Met Office

What kind of autumn are we in for in 2020? We are well overdue a cold one, but the way the autumn has already started this looks highly unlikely except for some parts of the north. You would have to back to 1993 to find a real cold autumn, and in the last thirty years there have only been two (1992 & 1993), the rest have been average or above. Interestingly if the autumn is cold it’s generally cold everywhere across the UK although there are a few exceptions to that (1912, 1919 & 1925). Of the last six autumns, five of them have been drier than average, the exception to that of course was 2019 with the mid-November flooding in Yorkshire and Humberside. Sunshine in the last six autumns does seem to favor the north of Scotland so hopefully that will continue despite a poor start. For what it’s worth here is the three month outlook for Autumn from the UKMO that they issued back on the 20th of August. If you can glean anything useful from it you’re a better man than me Gunga Din. I would say that the coming spell of easterlies doesn’t particularly fit too well with “an increased likelihood of winds from the west” but I suppose spells like that are unlikely to predominate.

Courtesy of UKMO
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