What track will storm Francis take?

What track will Storm Francis take? I’m already fairly positive that Met Eireann won’t take any chances naming Tuesday’s extratropical storm Francis as it whizzes across IONA, if they don’t what the hell. The intensity of the low at 12 UTC is between 974 and 984 hPa and the strongest winds look to be on its southern and eastern flank, they’ll be southwesterly but veer west or northwesterly as the low moves east. The exact track that Francis takes will be key to where the strongest gradient will be, the southwest of both Ireland and the UK look favourite at the moment. There is a lot of rain associated with the low but hopefully northern Scotland might escape the worst of it with winds remaining in an easterly quadrant. Who knows, the low must also have some tropical air associated with is as storm Ellen hid, but the explosive deepening on the southwest tip of Ireland set that one part and may not happen with this one, although it does look fairly intense even at T+84.

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