I couldn’t quite believe that the UKMO would issue a yellow warning for just 10 to 20 rain of rain for yesterday but I was wrong, because yesterday they did. Yes I know what you’re going to say, the ground is saturated with the rain in this wet autumn, but this warning was for central southern England and not the Don valley. You can almost sense in the media (and by that I mean the Guardian and the BBC news because that’s what I peruse) the distinct smell of let’s look for climate extremes in the air. But what makes this autumn’s so very different from any other autumn? Aren’t autumn’s normally wet, and occasionally very wet in some regions? And doesn’t the ground get saturated as a result of this?
Anyway, I ran an estimate on yesterday’s event and the rainfall that fell more or less matched the ones in the warning but the area was a little too extensive, especially across Hampshire into Sussex. So congratulations are in order to the UKMO, but I do get the distinct feeling that because of advances made in short range NWP rainfall forecasting that yellow warnings for events such as this one, are going to become the norm and we are inundated with yellow warnings for rain. In time we may have to rename the Met Office the Wet Office to better reflect it’s true role.