Whither Thursday’s low

Courtesy wxcharts.com

The latest run of the GFS is well out of step with the position and intensity of Thursdays low when compared to the ICON, ARPEFE and ECMWF models, holding it back west of Ireland at 06 UTC on Friday. With each successive run the ECMWF has taken the track of the low that bit further north with each run. If this had been January Friday could have been quite a wintery day. This low (Marco?) could be a possible candidate for named storm, but if the UKMO ignored low Eugen earlier this month then I can’t see them doing anything different with this one unless Met Éireann decide to step in over the strength of the wind, and the 2 hPa isobar spacing always makes for horrific looking gradients.

Courtesy wxcharts.com

1 thought on “Whither Thursday’s low”

  1. Differences are due to the way the different models handle the effect of severe convection currently over the USA on the evolution of the shape and strength of the Jetstream that eventually generates the low. The effects are enough to influence the forecast position of the low, but not enough to influence its existence.

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