Zonal or meridional?

Courtesy of ECMWF

I know this anticyclonic spell hasn’t even started yet, and I do realise that the hoar frost may make people think it’s winter over the next few days, because let’s face it this might be the only time many people in the UK will see the ground white. All amateur meteorologists know that in an anticyclone this is just a thin veneer of cold air a few thousand feet thick, and any real cold air, in these days of global warming, lies elsewhere. So what I’m more interested in is just how this anticyclonic spell will break down, and although it may well last for most of next week, anticyclones on the whole are pretty fragile things. Looking at the latest ECMWF T+216 chart it looks like high pressure will be eroded and pushed south to allow a zonal mobile type once again to become established by the end of next week. The one glimmer of hope in this run is the T+240 chart which does hint at something more meridional, but for this for more than a couple of days, high pressure will have to build in from the northwest and push the belt of cyclonic activity further south.

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