Odds still in favor of a storm Alex
The leading NWP Models now seem to be coming to some kind of general consensus about the track of Friday’s low, although they do differ about its intensity. The ECMWF for example takes the developing low …
Arctic airstream ?
I didn’t quite get the reference to an Arctic airstream this weekend from Susan Powell, and as regards wind, Friday and Saturday could be just as lively as Sunday.All we need now is Tomasz Schafernaker to …
All quiet on the western front
Is the tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic just taking a breather or is that it for this year? The North Atlantic tropical cyclone season in 2020 looks like it’s taking a well earned breather …
Now more likely storm Alex than Aiden
Saturdays pirouetting low according to the midnight run of the GFS model starts its journey moving quickly westward into central France from the Bay of Biscay before taking a sharp turn to the left and heading …
Cold start to autumn
A cold start to the first week of autumn across much of IONA away from the southeast of England, and in sharp contrast following such a warm spell the week before.
Paulette refuses to die
Ex-hurricane Paulette is showing signs of life again south of the Azores and is attempting to return from the dead for the third time!Other than that there are no signs of any other tropical cyclonic activity …
Autumn comes early to western Europe
It seems that autumn has come early to western Europe this year with more equinoctial gales following hard on the heels of storm Odette.The forecast of a deep low for Saturday across IONA I mentioned yesterday …
Another early frost
It could have been so much colder overnight if it hadn’t been for some low cloud and the wind never really falling out across the north. The 18-06 period is often not the coldest period in …
Next weekends retrograde low
I had to check that I wasn’t seeing things when I first looked at the ECMWF hi-res model for next weekend across IONA. For a moment I thought I’d downloaded the images from the wxcharts.com site …
Binbrook wet spot
I noticed a hot spot, or should that be a wet spot, right along the northern part of the Lincolnshire wolds from the heavy rain that fell from storm Odette. I spent four of the more …
Storm Odette and the storm naming farce
I hadn’t realised that yesterday’s fierce little low in the southern North Sea had been named storm Odette by the Belgium Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI). The north northwesterlies from it are still blowing a steady force …
Bracing down the east coast with gusts of 58 knots at Donna Nook
Well done to the Met Office with their yellow wind warning for strong wind they issued yesterday, who says that I’m always critical of them? Although I will say they did leave the start time for …
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Living life on the edge
Exeter are obviously confident that they’ve plumped for the right area to issue a yellow strong wind warning for – East Anglia for tomorrow rather than one for the southwest for today. It’s the same feature …
A proclivity to use the word “cool”
As we head into autumn we are constantly being bombarded by the term cool by weathercasters on TV rather than them using the word cold. Tomasz Schafernaker has even gone so far as to rename cold …
The first frost of the autumn and model shortcomings
So much for the ICON model and its forecast 2 metre air temperature for Altnaharra at o6 UTC this morning of 3°C. The Germans look like they have problems with that model because the temperature at …
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Frost for the north?
I would have thought that there was a good chance of a sharp frost tonight across inland parts of Scotland, although the ICON model doesn’t seem to be going for one, it certainly feels crisp and …
Teddy makes landfall near Ecum Secum
Ex-hurricane Teddy has made landfall in Nova Scotia close to a place called Ecum Secum. I realise that my plotted 12 UTC chart hasn’t contoured it properly even after adding a bogus observation. The NWP forecast …
Overnight rainfall totals
There was a fairly large area of rainfall totals across western Scotland that exceeded 40 mm yesterday, and across higher ground estimated totals were well in excess of 80 mm. I thought that I would just …
September 2020 – another rather dry month in places
The first three weeks of September 2020 have turned out to have been rather dry in many places across England especially the far southeast and close to the channel coast.
A beautiful autumnal morning
At last we have a morning that we can crow about across the north of Scotland for once this September. Blue skies and sunshine with sub zero temperatures on the highest tops and cold enough despite …
A peculiar penchant for bent back occlusions
There’s a certain chief forecaster, or maybe a group of them, that have a peculiar penchant for bent back occlusions, and like nothing better than shoe horning one or two into their analysis or forecast charts. …
Today’s heavy rain in the west of Scotland
I am not quite sure if the weather radar images are over estimating the rain that’s been falling so far today in the west of Scotland, but if they aren’t I think totals of 50 to …
Paulette returns from the grave
On the 12th of September the ACE index in the Atlantic for 2020 was slightly below the LTA, but ten days later with the help of hurricanes Paulette and Teddy the ACE index on the 22nd …