A peculiar penchant for bent back occlusions

Courtesy of UKMO

There’s a certain chief forecaster, or maybe a group of them, that have a peculiar penchant for bent back occlusions, and like nothing better than shoe horning one or two into their analysis or forecast charts. Take yesterday evenings cold front as it crossed the northwest of Scotland as a prime example of this. In the 06 UTC analysis it was a newly developing open wave, but by 12 UTC it had magically grown a 250 mile bent back occlusion from absolutely nowhere. Not only did they introduce this spurious feature but they also managed to screw up the 18 UTC analysis by advancing the aforementioned cold front too far east, when the real cold front had only just got into the mainland! Today’s forecasters seem to spend little time in watching the latest observations, if they did they might have realised the cold front didn’t clear Cairngorm until after 22 UTC as the observations below suggest.

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