All’s not lost – well not quite

This Saturday

The NWP of the last week have been united in showing how, after the current anticyclonic easterlies collapses later this week, they will be replaced over the weekend by howling southerlies and very much milder air, especially in the west. The thing with deep cold air is that once it has become entrenched (another metaphor to wars along with fronts and battles) it’s usually very hard to break it’s grip and shift it, and NWP models for years have been notoriously bad at speeding their demise. Hopefully this is the case with this one because in the latest runs I have noticed a slight shift in their unanimity, at least with the GFS model. There may be a milder period during next week but the block to the east refuses to budge, and by T+240 (the Saturday after next) low pressure is forced to the south of IONA and a renewed easterly flow is introduced. It’s only a glimmer I know, but at least it’s something for the snow lovers amongst us, and you may remember that the GFS model was much more consistent in forecasting this present cold spell than the ECMWF model ever was.

Next Saturday

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