The latest run of the ECMWF model raises the prospect of an anticyclonic easterly by the first week of February and all that that entails including headlines like mine. There has been a ‘reservoir’ of cold air across central Norway for some time now it may be that it’s finally decided to jettison some of that very cold air our way. If this forecast does pan out it would nicely coincide with the first of Buchans cold spell of the year from the 7th to 14th of February. Meanwhile the long range team down in Exeter seem completely oblivious to the possibility of any of this happening, and are peddling the usual vague long range story that could just about describe any type of February weather be it mild or cold.
UK long range weather forecast
Monday 1 Feb -Wednesday 10 Feb
Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.
Wednesday 10 Feb -Wednesday 24 Feb
Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder air masses, with snow possible to low elevations.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 28 Jan 2021