Chances of white Christmas go up

Courtesy of the ECMWF

It’s that time of year when I invariably have to clutch at straws to find a potential cold spell and any chance of snow for the festive season. Hopefully the ECMWF model will prove correct for the first part of Christmas and that we do see some snow at latitude 57° north. My chances should have improved by moving north by a full six degrees, but thanks to the dreaded global warming those chances have been well and truly nullified in recent years. Sadly this ECMWF forecast doesn’t look like a change to a more meridional type according to the extended frames of the GFS model, but at least there is some agreement at T+240.

Courtesy of wxcharts.com

The usual non-specific gobbledygook from the boys down at Exeter in their latest long range forecast for the festive season. Their chances of trying to convince the general public that their fancy models and mega-fast supercomputers are becoming more accurate and more far reaching with long range forecasts like this for the next 30 days are pretty slim. For what it’s worth in my experience the weather can always be relied on to flip around Christmas and the New Year, from mild to cold, or vice versa, but that may well be me clutching at straws again!

Courtesy of UKMO

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