Cold start to May

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It seems like we might not be completely done with either frost or snow this spring according to the outer limits – the T+216 to T+240 frames – of the latest ECMWF model. If this cold snap does come off, which might be a very long shot at this time range, that’ll mean there’s been a cold start to February, April and May this year. The Ice Saints cold spell singularity, which can be quite reliable in some years, runs from the 11th to the 15th of May, so who knows if high pressure builds behind this deepening and fairly vigorous low on the 4th of May, we could be in for another anticyclonic northerly in its wake. The first two of Buchans cold spells have held true so far this year, will the third one (9th – 14th May)? At the moment spring mean temperatures, at least in Central England, are just above average, with April almost cancelling out a very mild March. Cold springs are getting as rare as rocking horse droppings in the UK during the last 30 years, with the help of a colder April and May maybe spring 2021 will be an exception.

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