Disparity between UKMO and ECMWF

Courtesy of UKMO

According to the latest hires ECMWF model, although the first part of this week will be generally mild and benign it does forecast a couple of lows that will rush northeastward across the country on Thursday (12th) and again a week on Monday (16th). Although neither low looks particularly deep they do look quite vigorous and will affect all areas including the east, with strong wind and rain. I realise that their long range forecast is meant to be short and generalised but they do seem to give these features scant regard. Perhaps that’s what their NWP output is telling them, but it’s impossible to say without seeing it, and the best I can do is include their T+120 forecast fax chart. I keep an eye on this long range forecast the UKMO provide for the month ahead and often find it slow to change and react even if it is looking at long term patterns. At the moment their theme at least for the next ten days seems far too anticyclonic, and the chart for Thursday can in no way be described as settled.

Courtesy of wxcharts.com
Courtesy of UKMO
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