The ECMWF 42 day long range 2 M temperature anomaly forecast in the space of just six days have now decided that the week commencing the 18th January (next Monday) is now going to be colder than average rather than much milder than average. The whole anomaly map not just across IONA has been reshaped with the whole of Europe switching from mild to cold. Every time that I take a look at this output from the ECMWF, any confidence that I have in long term forecasting takes another severe knock. Perhaps this is the SSW finally making its mark felt? The one thing I do know is that we don’t seem to be able to entirely shake of the cold spell that started at Christmas across northern Scotland.