ECMWF promise warm June up until the solstice

Courtesy of ECMWF

I wasn’t going to bother looking forward with the 42 day temperature forecast for June from the ECMWF after their shockingly poor forecast for April but I couldn’t resist the urge to see what it promised, which is so much more clearly presented and less ambiguous in the form of anomaly maps than the UKMO text and gobbledygook graphs in their ‘Contingency forecast’. But the ECMWF have June looking significantly warmer than usual through the first three week of the month. After that things return closer to average, before picking up as we go into July.
Here’s what the Met Office have to offer in their ‘long range’ text forecast, which as usual is full of words such as chance, possible, and perhaps. Let’s hope the new billion dollar supercomputer doesnt spit out phrases such as ‘confidence is typically low’ for forecast beyond day 14 like this one seem to do.

Long range forecast

Sunday 6 Jun – Tuesday 15 Jun

Rather mixed conditions are expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around, although equally cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain tending to gradually work its way in from the west. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards the milder side of average with the chance of some very warm or hot spells at times. Into the following week, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, however this accompanied by a risk of some showers and longer spells of light rain developing at times. There is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions with wind and rain for north-western areas possible by the end of the period.

Tuesday 15 Jun – Tuesday 29 Jun

Confidence is typically low for this period, but high pressure looks to be most likely with generally fine and dry conditions for most. However, the risk of some showers developing through the days is still possible with perhaps cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average.

Courtesy of UKMO

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