Global temperatures – how likely is it that 2020 will take the crown from 2016?

It still looks unlikely to me that by the end of this year 2020 will claim the crown of the warmest year from 2016. Rather it looks likely that 2020 will end up finishing second best to 2016 and the global warming brigade will have to rely on the fact that the warmest seven years in the series, which began in the year 1850 in the case of HadCRUT4, have occurred in the last seven years. Although 2016 was the warmest year in all of the above estimated global warming series the pulse of warm air that made it the warmest occurred in the first four months of that year, with the rest of the year cooling down, this opens the possibility for 2020 to catch up during the late summer and autumn. It would be interesting to see how the experts would react if the just the GISS series made 2020 the warmest year. In my experience the GISS series has always shown the greatest volatility as regards warming. The Met Office forecast https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/06/23/global-temperature-how-does-2020-compare-so-far/

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