I reckon Great Thunberg won’t be too chuffed when she reads that 2019 won’t be crowned warmest year globally, that’s according to the latest data from my DIY reanalysis global temperature series which she, like everyone else, will have never heard of. At the moment (on the 23rd of November) my projected global temperatures for 2019 is 9.94°C, which is +0.57°C higher than the 1951-1980 lLTA. That’ll make it second warmest behind 2016 since records began, in my case since 1948. I say projected because there are still over five weeks of temperatures for 2019 to come in. As far I am concerned there are two ways to do this projection and fill in the missing values, and that is to assume all remaining days will be as the daily LTA, or to calculate a 365 day mean for the period 24th of November 2018 to the 23rd of November 2019 and use that as I’ve done here.
Of course the magnitude of the anomalies in my DIY global temperature calculations are much less than those in the GISTEMP series by at least 40%, nevertheless Greta will be able to take comfort in the fact that nineteen of the twenty warmest years globally have occurred this side of the millennium.
If my projection turns out to be correct then it will at least prove that I have managed to write an application that calculates daily global temperatures from reanalysis gridded successfully – if not what the hell.