Is the GFS throwing a wobbly at T+168?

You might have thought that the GFS model was throwing a wobbly at T+168 with the extreme gradient that it’s forecasting around this low of southwest Ireland. Having said that it was only at the beginning of the month that storm Alex had a very similar tight inner core as it made landfall in northwest France, which to me did resemble that of any self respecting tropical storm and similar to the recent Greek medicane Ianos, so who knows?
Moving on I thought I’d take a quick look at the ECMWF hires model to see how that handled next Tuesday, and although it’s quite a bit slower than the GFS solution, the end product has a similar low centre of 967 hPa close to Valentia at 12 UTC next Wednesday looks a lot more believable.
The usual caveats apply with any NWP forecast beyond T+120 and that in essence boils down to – don’t trust them. It would be a shame to lose this anticyclonic easterly so quickly across the north, but from what I can see from the model output it will be rather cloudy in the east and not entirely free of the odd shower.

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