Meteogroup might not be expecting it to happen but the Met Office are pretty certain it will…

Courtesy of the BBC

Darren Bett said there was “uncertainty” concerning Thursdays low, and that he is not expecting strong winds to happen. That’s a bit of a pity because the Met Office are expecting strong winds to happen, and have issued a yellow warning to underline that fact. When I say Darren Bett is not expecting them to happen, what I should really say that the Meteogroup chief forecaster isn’t expecting them to happen. This is the first real public spat that I’ve witnessed between the two organisations since Meteogroup won the BBC contract. It’s quite obvious it’s all to do with which the uncertainty in the various NWP models concerning Thursday’s low and which model you believe is giving you the correct solution. You can see this is the case because of the stark difference in the NWP model that Darren Bett is displaying, and the latest T+48 forecast chart (issued at 1719 UTC) for Thursday lunchtime from the Met Office. The low in the Met Office forecast chart is deeper (991 hPa) and more vigorous than the low in the model Meteogroup are running with (~1000 hPa) whatever that is (probably ECMWF). The yellow warning was issued at 0939 UTC this morning so it may well be that the Met Office are also backing off the likelihood of the strong winds happening too – who knows.

Courtesy of UKMO
Courtesy of UKMO

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