Models back off with Wendy

Saturday’s NWP for 00 UTC

The various models have got their knickers in a twist about how low Wendy will develop overnight as it runs eastward across Scotland. The latest consensus from four of the worlds NWP models is that it will develop more quickly (the chart above is for midnight rather than for 06 UTC tomorrow morning below), and be a far less intense feature as yesterday’s model runs were predicting it would be. It looks like this run however, is not enough evidence for the UKMO to cancel their yellow warning for strong wind, which was in my opinion, rushed out yesterday morning. The thing is you never know if its because the great Oz is still expecting gusts of 50 to 60 mph, or is it because he just can’t stand the ignominity of having to cancel the whole thing? I notice Darren Bett said in the lunchtime forecast going on about gusts of 50 to 60 mph on the lee side of the Pennines, with not a mention of how the strong the gusts will be across Glasgow and Edinburgh!

Yesterday’s NWP for 06 UTC on Sunday

Darren has obviously been looking at the latest ECMWF hires model, if the midnight run of that is correct, the area of strongest winds outlined in the yellow warning will require updating and expanding (and also extending to 18 UTC), maybe to cover northern Ireland and a a larger part of northern England.

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