Northerlies – a mere shadow of their former self

GFS (left) ECMWF (right)

The models always seem to be promising a northerly outbreak at this time of the year. Sometime they never materialise at all and seem permanently fixed at T+168. The temperatures in this northerly promised for the 27-28th also look frustratingly on the mild side. I remember when I started this blogging lark almost ten years ago now I wrote a piece bemoaning the fact that northerlises were a mere shadow of their former self. Because of the depletion of Arctic sea ice in recent years the chances of seeing any sub 528 dam thickness air in a northerly must have also lessened. So although these charts look like temperatures should be lower, even sub-zero because it is an Arctic Blarst after all, in realty much of the precipitation looks to be of rain and not snow.

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