The frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic since 1851

There is no doubt the number of tropical cyclones has increased since 1851 in the North Atlantic and all the linear trends are tilting upwards in the above graphs. I still maintain that a good deal of this increase in recent years is down to increased coverage by more advanced weather satellites, better and more sophisticated high resolution NWP models, and the increasingly forensic observational meteorology practiced by the NHC in the last thirty years. This year has been forecast to a busy one in the North Atlantic, and so far it’s kept its accumulated ACE score is staying 5 or 10 points above the LTA as you can see. Early September is peak season for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic – let’s see if 2020 can keep them coming.

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