They think it’s all over…

I have noticed during the last week that the various NWP models were predicting that we would lose the cold easterlies by the middle of the week as winds veered into the southeast ahead of much milder Atlantic air coming into the southwest. The latest runs have given me some cause for hope, in that the incursion of milder air might be limited, and even if it does it might be quite short lived. I detect the models are in a state of flux at the moment at this range, but thankfully seem to be back pedalling on their earlier ideas of a much milder scenario for IONA. I do realise the vagaries of NWP models at T+240, but sometimes it’s rather uncanny how they can pick up in a change of weather type, much as they did with this current anticyclonic easterly we are now experiencing. You may think that swapping an anticyclonic easterly for an anticyclonic northerly is not such a big change in type, and you’d be right, but it’s much better than a cyclonic southwesterly.

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