UKMO playing it a little too cool?
The Met Office are playing it cool about issuing a warning for the forecast strong winds associated with low Gudrun later this week. Met Eireann wisely on the other hand have already issued a yellow warning for counties Galway and Mayo. It’s all down to the fact that the UKMO have two sets of threshold, which rather unhelpfully they keep to themselves, the lower set of thresholds is for England and Wales, and the other one is for the rest of us. I reckon for a yellow wind warning its set at 50-60 mph in the south and maybe 60-70 mph in the north. The GFS is forecasting maximum gusts of between 50 and 55 knots for Friday into Saturday across the west of Scotland, which is 57 to 63 mph, so it’s borderline for the higher threshold. Of course Oz may be waiting to see the colour of Gudrun’s eyes before he issues a yellow warning.