The ECMWF model has picked up on a secondary low which is a rather curious but vigorous little feature later this week. It forms to the west of Corunna during Wednesday, before deepening and tracking northeast, and then east along the south coast of England during Thursday. What causes it to form, and why it then fills so rapidly as it comes eastward into the blocking high over Europe is a mystery to me. The ECMWF forecast suggests that by midnight Thursday it will have lost the heavier rain associated with it. It will be interesting to see if it’s seen as a candidate for a yellow warning of strong winds, at least for the southwest of England.
The 12 UTC run of the ECMWF Hires model does a complete about turn on the story of the secondary low. This has shaken my confidence in what I thought was the world’s best NWP model!!