UK long range weather forecast
Monday 21 Dec – Wednesday 30 Dec
There is the potential for outbreaks of heavy rain in the south at the beginning of this period. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build to the west of the UK with many southern and western parts becoming predominantly dry and settled. The greatest chance of showers is in the north and perhaps in the east. There is a potential for strong winds in the far south at first; at other times any strong winds are likely to be confined to the north and perhaps the east. Prevalence of overnight fog and frost is likely increasing, with fog potentially slow to clear during the daytime. Temperatures either close to or slightly below normal.
Wednesday 30 Dec – Wednesday 13 Jan
High pressure will probably be remaining the dominant pattern for the UK over the last days of December. This means a good deal of dry weather for many parts but with overnight frost and fog, with fog potentially slow to clear. Some periods of wetter weather may develop at times, most likely in the east. Into January confidence is low, although a change to more unsettled conditions with Atlantic systems moving in from the west is looking likely to occur during the first half of January.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 17 Dec 2020
It is clear from the fact that the Met Office don’t mention in their long range text forecast what kind of showers will be falling “in the north and east” that they
don’t have a clue have low confidence in what’s going to happen over the Christmas period. Everytime I read this forecast I wonder about its usefulness and for some reason a line from that pop song by Ronan Keating pops into my head. Perhaps the Met Office should simply replace it with a video version of it accompanied by a selection of our own NWP graphics which they produce on our behalf? Why is it when they do show any NWP graphics is it always from the ECMWF and not our own UKMO model?
In my opinion Alex Deakin is by far the best weather presenter at the moment, and has all the reasons why they can’t decide in their ten day trend video. You’ll know that I make a point of picking up on the blunders, foibles and biases that any of our weathercasters have. Over the years I’ve caught most of them out but for some reason never Alex Deakin.
In the video itself I did spot a rare graphic possibly from our own UKMO model showing rainfall accumulations for the end of this week – looks nice and clear doesn’t it. Why ever don’t they use this as the basis of their chart in their NSWWS charts instead of the ones with yellow blobs on it? Probably it’s simply because they are generated by a machine, and for some obscure reason it’s been decided that they need some intervention to turn them into a more scientific blob of custard that we can all understand.