How to shave 16 years off the date we reach +1.5°C without breaking a sweat

I apologise to any of my 48 subscribers who might take exception to another post about global temperatures. The scientists and media will tell you that global temperature s and reducing our emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere are the key things the world should be focused on at the moment, and equally as important as the possibility of another Scottish referendum, or whether there’ll be another series of Line of Duty. You may not know this but at the start of this year the Met Office reworked how they did there calculations. One reason they did this was because HadCRUTv4 was considerably cooler and warming less sharply than some of the other global series, especially GISTempv4 from the Americans. The other reason I believe was to prevent any embarrassment in this years delayed 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) that’s scheduled to take place between the 1st and 12th of November in Glasgow. One of the agreements that came out of COP21 in 2015, the so called Paris Agreement , was to keep global temperatures “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and “endeavor to limit” them to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The two charts above show the differences that changing from version four of the HadCRUT to version five makes. To estimate the date that global temperatures will reach this magic figure of 1.5°C I have plotted a simple linear trend for the last 30 years of monthly anomalies and extrapolated it forward for both versions of the HadCRUT series. As you can see with the new version the UKMO and CRU have craftily shaved 16 years from the date that global temperatures will reach 1.5°C above those of 1880. In version four I reckon reaching that 1.5°C target would have occurred in October 2050, but in version five this could now occur as soon as June 2034, that’s over 16 years earlier. You may wonder why these two charts don’t appear to start with a baseline of 0°C, well they may look like they don’t but they do, and the reason they don’t is that last two decades of the 19th century were globally quite cold.

The other problem the world’s national weather services have at the moment is that average 12 month global temperatures have been falling and not rising for the last six months, fifteenth warmest doesn’t quite have the same ring about it as the warmest on record does. Many people believe that this fall in global temperatures is due to the La Niña event in the Pacific, but I suspect it started much earlier, and could also be the start of a spell of natural induced cooling that’s impossible to quantify.

4 thoughts on “How to shave 16 years off the date we reach +1.5°C without breaking a sweat”

  1. I enjoy your posts about global temperatures as I am very sceptical as regards the global warming hysteria that is promoted by the MSM

    1. I like to keep an eye on them – you may have noticed my own daily DIY Global temperature series that I calculate from gridded reanalysis data.

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